Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Aug 29 · 17:15 · Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Likeliest: Hapoel Haifa win · 39%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hapoel Haifa39%33%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%33%−7
OursMarket
Hapoel Tel Aviv35%33%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 61% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 60% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 67% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 67% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 50% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hapoel Haifa
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- May 18 · v Bnei Sakhnin (H)3-0
- May 13 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)1-1
- May 10 · v Ashdod (H)1-0
- May 3 · at Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A)0-2
- Apr 29 · v Ironi Tiberias (H)1-1
Hapoel Tel Aviv
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Aug 27 · v Atalanta (H)0-1
- Aug 20 · at Atalanta (A)0-0
- Aug 12 · at GKS Katowice (A)1-2
- Aug 6 · v GKS Katowice (H)2-0
- Jul 30 · at Ludogorets (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Hapoel Haifa | Hapoel Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.