Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:45 · Hapoel Jerusalem vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Likeliest: Hapoel Tel Aviv win · 69%
Likely score: 0–1
A 69% away win. The market says 65%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hapoel Jerusalem10%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%21%0
OursMarket
Hapoel Tel Aviv69%65%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 31% | 35% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 19% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hapoel Jerusalem
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)1-2
- Oct 12 · v Maccabi Haifa (H)1-4
- Sep 19 · at Maccabi Petach Tikva (A)4-2
- Sep 15 · at Ironi Tiberias (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)4-2
Hapoel Tel Aviv
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Ironi Tiberias (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A)3-1
- Sep 18 · v Hapoel Petach Tikva (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)1-4
- Sep 7 · v Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Hapoel Jerusalem | Hapoel Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.