Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Mon, Oct 12 · 17:30 · Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Haifa
Likeliest: Maccabi Haifa win · 61%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 61% for the away win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hapoel Jerusalem15%19%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Maccabi Haifa61%58%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hapoel Jerusalem
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at Maccabi Petach Tikva (A)4-2
- Sep 15 · at Ironi Tiberias (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)4-2
- Aug 29 · at Hapoel Petach Tikva (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · v Maccabi Tel Aviv (H)2-5
Maccabi Haifa
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Ironi Tiberias (H)3-2
- Sep 14 · at Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A)4-0
- Sep 5 · v Hapoel Petach Tikva (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Hapoel Jerusalem | Maccabi Haifa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.