Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sun, Aug 23 · 17:15 · Hapoel Jerusalem vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Likeliest: Hapoel Jerusalem win · 47%
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hapoel Jerusalem47%13%+34
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
Maccabi Tel Aviv31%66%−35
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 49% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 34% | +35 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 87% | −33 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 17% | +43 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hapoel Jerusalem
WinLossWinWinLoss
- May 18 · v Ironi Tiberias (H)0-2
- May 13 · at Ashdod (A)1-0
- May 10 · v Bnei Sakhnin (H)1-0
- May 4 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)0-1
- Apr 29 · at Maccabi Bnei Raina (A)1-0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 20 · at FC Lugano (A)1-2
- Aug 13 · at CSKA Sofia (A)3-1
- Aug 6 · v CSKA Sofia (H)0-3
- Jul 30 · v Sheriff Tiraspol (H)1-0
- Jul 23 · at Sheriff Tiraspol (A)5-0
| Last 10 games | Hapoel Jerusalem | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.