Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 18:00 · Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Hapoel Tel Aviv win · 48%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hapoel Tel Aviv48%18%+31
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Atalanta26%59%−33
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 55% | −19 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 41% | +33 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 82% | −31 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 23% | +42 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hapoel Tel Aviv
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Aug 20 · at Atalanta (A)0-0
- Aug 12 · at GKS Katowice (A)1-2
- Aug 6 · v GKS Katowice (H)2-0
- Jul 30 · at Ludogorets (A)2-2
- Jul 23 · v Ludogorets (H)2-0
Atalanta
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Aug 23 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Aug 20 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)0-0
- May 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Bologna (H)0-1
- May 10 · at AC Milan (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.