Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Oct 17 · 15:45 · Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Ironi Tiberias
Likeliest: Hapoel Tel Aviv win · 79%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 46%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hapoel Tel Aviv79%76%+3
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−1
OursMarket
Ironi Tiberias7%9%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 46% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 91% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 24% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 90% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hapoel Tel Aviv
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A)3-1
- Sep 18 · v Hapoel Petach Tikva (H)3-0
- Sep 14 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)1-4
- Sep 7 · v Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (H)4-0
- Sep 3 · v Beitar Jerusalem (H)3-0
Ironi Tiberias
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Hapoel Be'er Sheva (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Maccabi Haifa (A)2-3
- Sep 15 · v Hapoel Jerusalem (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Maccabi Petach Tikva (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Hapoel Tel Aviv | Ironi Tiberias |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.