National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Harrogate Town vs Hornchurch
Likeliest: Harrogate Town win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Harrogate Town58%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Hornchurch18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Harrogate Town
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 29 · at Hartlepool United (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Eastleigh (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Boreham Wood (A)1-4
- Sep 15 · v AFC Fylde (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Tamworth (H)3-1
Hornchurch
LossLossWinLossWin
- Sep 29 · v Aldershot Town (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Altrincham (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v Scunthorpe United (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Worthing FC (A)0-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Halifax Town (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Harrogate Town | Hornchurch |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.