National League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Harrogate Town vs Sutton United
Likeliest: Harrogate Town win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Harrogate Town55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Sutton United19%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Harrogate Town
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Bury FC (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Woking (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Hornchurch (H)3-0
- Sep 29 · at Hartlepool United (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Eastleigh (H)4-1
Sutton United
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Truro City (H)1-0
- Oct 9 · v Boreham Wood (H)0-2
- Oct 3 · at Kidderminster Harriers (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Tamworth (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Forest Green Rovers (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Harrogate Town | Sutton United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.