USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:00 · Hartford Athletic vs Brooklyn FC
Likeliest: Hartford Athletic win · 72%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hartford Athletic72%69%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Brooklyn FC12%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 51% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hartford Athletic
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 14 · v Charleston Battery (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Pittsburgh Riverhounds (A)1-2
- Sep 25 · v Louisville City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Las Vegas Lights (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · v SC Jacksonville (H)2-0
Brooklyn FC
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Rhode Island FC (H)1-3
- Sep 30 · v Detroit City FC (H)1-3
- Sep 23 · at Birmingham Legion FC (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · v FC Tulsa (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · at Indy Eleven (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Hartford Athletic | Brooklyn FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-0 | 1-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.