USL Championship (USA) · Wed, Oct 14 · 23:00 · Hartford Athletic vs Charleston Battery
Likeliest: Charleston Battery win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hartford Athletic36%38%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Charleston Battery37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hartford Athletic
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Pittsburgh Riverhounds (A)1-2
- Sep 25 · v Louisville City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Las Vegas Lights (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · v SC Jacksonville (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (H)3-1
Charleston Battery
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Louisville City FC (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · v Rhode Island FC (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Monterey Bay FC (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Birmingham Legion FC (A)2-2
- Sep 2 · v Hartford Athletic (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Hartford Athletic | Charleston Battery |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-0 | 3-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.