USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:00 · Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island FC
Likeliest: Rhode Island FC win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hartford Athletic33%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Rhode Island FC37%36%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hartford Athletic
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Brooklyn FC (H)2-3
- Oct 14 · v Charleston Battery (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Pittsburgh Riverhounds (A)1-2
- Sep 25 · v Louisville City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Las Vegas Lights (A)1-1
Rhode Island FC
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Pittsburgh Riverhounds (H)1-1
- Oct 14 · v Loudoun United FC (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Brooklyn FC (A)3-1
- Sep 30 · v Indy Eleven (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Hartford Athletic | Rhode Island FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.