National League (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Hartlepool United vs Hornchurch
Likeliest: Hartlepool United win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hartlepool United40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Hornchurch31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hartlepool United
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Marine AFC (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · at Forest Green Rovers (A)4-2
- Oct 3 · v Tamworth (H)0-1
- Sep 29 · v Harrogate Town (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Scunthorpe United (A)1-4
Hornchurch
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Uxbridge (A)4-0
- Oct 10 · v Eastleigh (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · at Harrogate Town (A)0-3
- Sep 29 · v Aldershot Town (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Altrincham (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Hartlepool United | Hornchurch |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-8 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 3-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.