National League (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Hartlepool United vs Tamworth
Likeliest: Hartlepool United win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hartlepool United38%42%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
Tamworth33%33%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 60% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hartlepool United
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 29 · v Harrogate Town (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Scunthorpe United (A)1-4
- Sep 19 · v Worthing FC (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Altrincham (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · at Kidderminster Harriers (A)0-2
Tamworth
LossLossWinLossWin
- Sep 30 · v Sutton United (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at Aldershot Town (A)1-5
- Sep 19 · v Wealdstone (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · at Southend United (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · at Harrogate Town (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Hartlepool United | Tamworth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-8 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.