3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 12 · 16:00 · Haugesund II vs Åkra
Likeliest: Haugesund II win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Haugesund II47%70%−23
OursMarket
Draw25%16%+9
OursMarket
Åkra28%14%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 86% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 30% | +23 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 84% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 83% | −21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Haugesund II
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 4 · at Stabæk Fotball II (A)1-4
- Sep 28 · v Hinna (H)2-4
- Sep 21 · at Madla (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Våg FK (H)0-3
- Sep 6 · at Odds BK II (A)1-7
Åkra
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v FK Mandalskameratene (H)0-4
- Sep 26 · v Madla (H)0-6
- Sep 19 · at Hinna (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Odds BK II (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Våg FK (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Haugesund II | Åkra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.