1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:30 · Haugesund vs Hødd IL
Likeliest: Haugesund win · 81%
Likely score: 3–1
A 81% home win. The market says 76%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Haugesund81%76%+5
OursMarket
Draw11%14%−3
OursMarket
Hødd IL8%10%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 78% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 63% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 19% | 24% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 86% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 88% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Haugesund
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Strømsgodset (A)0-5
- Oct 14 · v Lyn FK (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · at Sandnes Ulf (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Stabæk Fotball (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Strømmen IF (H)4-2
Hødd IL
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v Raufoss (H)5-1
- Oct 14 · v Ranheim IL (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Egersund (A)1-3
- Oct 3 · v Odds BK (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Kongsvinger (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Haugesund | Hødd IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.