1. Division (Norway) · Wed, Oct 14 · 17:00 · Haugesund vs Lyn FK
Likeliest: Haugesund win · 63%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Haugesund63%61%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Lyn FK18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 69% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.9 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Haugesund
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Sandnes Ulf (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Stabæk Fotball (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Strømmen IF (H)4-2
- Sep 13 · at Moss FK (A)4-1
- Sep 5 · v Sogndal IL (H)2-0
Lyn FK
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Strømsgodset (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Bryne FK (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Ranheim IL (H)1-4
- Sep 16 · at Gamle Oslo FK (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Hødd IL (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Haugesund | Lyn FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.