Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Fri, Oct 16 · 17:00 · HB Køge vs AB
Likeliest: AB win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HB Køge34%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
AB40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 47% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HB Køge
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Vendsyssel FF (A)2-0
- Sep 21 · v Hobro (H)5-2
- Sep 12 · at Esbjerg (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · v Hillerød (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at AaB (A)0-0
AB
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 9 · v Aarhus Fremad (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Esbjerg (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · at Hillerød (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v AaB (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | HB Køge | AB |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.