Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Mon, Sep 21 · 17:00 · HB Køge vs Hobro
Likeliest: HB Køge win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HB Køge40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Hobro33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HB Køge
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · at Esbjerg (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · v Hillerød (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at AaB (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · v Kolding IF (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Hvidovre (H)0-2
Hobro
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 11 · v Vejle (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · v Hvidovre (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at Hillerød (A)1-3
- Aug 21 · v AaB (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Esbjerg (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | HB Køge | Hobro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.