1. Division (Norway) · Wed, Oct 14 · 17:00 · Hødd IL vs Ranheim IL
Likeliest: Ranheim IL win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 79% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 71%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hødd IL32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Ranheim IL44%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 71% | +8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 73% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 2.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hødd IL
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Egersund (A)1-3
- Oct 3 · v Odds BK (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Kongsvinger (A)1-5
- Sep 16 · at Træff (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Lyn FK (H)0-2
Ranheim IL
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Kongsvinger (A)2-6
- Oct 2 · v Egersund (H)5-0
- Sep 20 · at Lyn FK (A)4-1
- Sep 16 · at Levanger (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Åsane (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Hødd IL | Ranheim IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.