1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00 · Hødd IL vs Raufoss
Likeliest: Hødd IL win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 74% for both teams to score. The market says 66%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hødd IL51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%24%0
OursMarket
Raufoss26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 92% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 65% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 74% | 66% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hødd IL
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 14 · v Ranheim IL (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Egersund (A)1-3
- Oct 3 · v Odds BK (H)2-3
- Sep 20 · at Kongsvinger (A)1-5
- Sep 16 · at Træff (A)3-0
Raufoss
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 14 · at Bryne FK (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Moss FK (H)1-2
- Oct 6 · v IK Start (H)1-5
- Sep 20 · v Strømsgodset (H)0-2
- Sep 16 · at Elverum (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Hødd IL | Raufoss |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-3 | 2-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.