Premiership (Scotland) · Sun, Sep 6 · 14:00 · Hearts vs Dundee FC
Likeliest: Hearts win · 61%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hearts61%62%−1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Dundee FC18%16%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 84% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 38% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 79% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hearts
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 3 · at Hibernian (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v St. Johnstone (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)1-1
- Aug 20 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)2-2
- Aug 13 · v Benfica (H)1-1
Dundee FC
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Sep 2 · v St. Johnstone (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Hibernian (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Dundee United (A)2-0
- Aug 8 · v Aberdeen (H)2-0
- Aug 3 · at Celtic (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Hearts | Dundee FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.