Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · Hearts vs FC Nordsjælland
Likeliest: FC Nordsjælland win · 43%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hearts30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC Nordsjælland43%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hearts
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v St. Mirren (H)5-0
- Sep 19 · at Kilmarnock (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Falkirk FC (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Dundee FC (H)2-1
- Sep 3 · at Hibernian (A)3-1
FC Nordsjælland
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 9 · v Odense Boldklub (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Viborg FF (A)1-4
- Sep 16 · at Vinder Vatanspor Vri (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v AGF (H)2-0
- Sep 7 · at FC Midtjylland (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Hearts | FC Nordsjælland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.