Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 21 · 14:30 · Heidenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 55%
A 24% home win. The market says 17%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim24%17%+7
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen55%62%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 38% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 83% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 22% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Mar 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-4
- Feb 28 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
- Feb 15 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Mar 17 · at Arsenal (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-1
- Mar 11 · v Arsenal (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-3
- Mar 4 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-8 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Heidenheim form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record