Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 22 · 14:30 · Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Likeliest: Borussia Mönchengladbach win · 52%
A 52% away win. The market says 44%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim24%30%−6
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
Borussia Mönchengladbach52%44%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 56% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 41% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Nov 8 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-6
- Nov 1 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
- Oct 28 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-1
- Oct 25 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-3
- Oct 18 · v Werder Bremen (H)2-2
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LossLossWinWinWin
- Nov 8 · v FC Köln (H)3-1
- Nov 1 · at St. Pauli (A)4-0
- Oct 28 · v Karlsruher SC (H)3-1
- Oct 25 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-3
- Oct 17 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Heidenheim form·Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Head-to-head record