Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Dec 21 · 16:30 · Heidenheim vs FC Bayern München
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 52%
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 25%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim27%6%+21
OursMarket
Draw22%11%+11
OursMarket
FC Bayern München52%83%−32
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 75% | −13 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 17% | +32 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 94% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 89% | −11 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 7% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 13 · at St. Pauli (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Nov 29 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-3
- Nov 8 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-6
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Dec 14 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)2-2
- Dec 9 · v Sporting CP (H)3-1
- Dec 6 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)5-0
- Dec 3 · at FC Union Berlin (A)3-2
- Nov 29 · v St. Pauli (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.