Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 10 · 14:30 · Heidenheim vs FC Köln
Likeliest: FC Köln win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim35%33%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
FC Köln43%40%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 54% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 60% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 45% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Dec 21 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-4
- Dec 13 · at St. Pauli (A)1-2
- Dec 6 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
- Nov 29 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-3
FC Köln
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Dec 20 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
- Dec 13 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-2
- Dec 6 · v St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Nov 29 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.