Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 11 · 13:30 · Heidenheim vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: Heidenheim win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 32%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim43%32%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin34%40%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 55% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 60% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 68% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 44% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Apr 4 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-3
- Mar 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-4
- Feb 28 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-2
FC Union Berlin
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Apr 5 · v St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Mar 21 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-4
- Mar 15 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-0
- Mar 8 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-4
- Feb 28 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.