Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Feb 16 · 18:30 · Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: Heidenheim win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Heidenheim40%——
OursMarket
Draw27%——
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0534%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
LossLossLossLossWin
- Feb 13 · at FC København (A)2-1
- Feb 8 · at SC Freiburg (A)0-1
- Feb 1 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-2
- Jan 25 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-2
- Jan 18 · v St. Pauli (H)0-2
FSV Mainz 05
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Feb 8 · v FC Augsburg (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-1
- Jan 25 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-0
- Jan 19 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-2
- Jan 14 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-4 | 2-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 17% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.