Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 16 · 13:30 · Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: FSV Mainz 05 win · 39%
A 39% away win. The market says 29%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim36%48%−12
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0539%29%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 65% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 65% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 71% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 52% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 63% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
WinLossWinDrawWin
- May 10 · at FC Köln (A)3-1
- May 2 · at FC Bayern München (A)3-3
- Apr 25 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Apr 19 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
FSV Mainz 05
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- May 10 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-3
- May 3 · at St. Pauli (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v FC Bayern München (H)3-4
- Apr 19 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)1-1
- Apr 16 · at Strasbourg (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.