Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 7 · 14:30 · Heidenheim vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: Hamburger SV win · 53%
A 53% away win. The market says 40%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim25%33%−7
OursMarket
Draw21%28%−6
OursMarket
Hamburger SV53%40%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 53% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 60% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 67% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 45% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Feb 1 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Jan 24 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-3
- Jan 17 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-1
- Jan 13 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
- Jan 10 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
Hamburger SV
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Jan 31 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-2
- Jan 23 · at St. Pauli (A)0-0
- Jan 17 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-0
- Jan 10 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Dec 20 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.