Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 24 · 14:30 · Heidenheim vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 53%
A 26% home win. The market says 20%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim26%20%+6
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
RB Leipzig53%58%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 42% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 80% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 26% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Jan 17 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-1
- Jan 13 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
- Jan 10 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
- Dec 21 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-4
- Dec 13 · at St. Pauli (A)1-2
RB Leipzig
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Jan 17 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-5
- Jan 14 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-0
- Dec 20 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
- Dec 12 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-3
- Dec 6 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)6-0
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.