Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 6 · 14:30 · Heidenheim vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: SC Freiburg win · 44%
A 31% home win. The market says 24%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim31%24%+7
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
SC Freiburg44%50%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 76% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 32% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Nov 29 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-1
- Nov 22 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-3
- Nov 8 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-6
- Nov 1 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
- Oct 28 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-1
SC Freiburg
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Dec 3 · v Darmstadt 98 (H)2-0
- Nov 30 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)4-0
- Nov 27 · at Viktoria Plzeň (A)0-0
- Nov 22 · at FC Bayern München (A)2-6
- Nov 9 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-6 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.