Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 25 · 13:30 · Heidenheim vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: Heidenheim win · 44%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim44%41%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
St. Pauli32%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 56% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Apr 19 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Apr 4 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-3
- Mar 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
St. Pauli
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Apr 17 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-5
- Apr 5 · at FC Union Berlin (A)1-1
- Mar 22 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-2
- Mar 13 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.