Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 7 · 14:30 · Heidenheim vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: TSG Hoffenheim win · 44%
A 36% home win. The market says 19%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim36%19%+16
OursMarket
Draw20%22%−2
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim44%59%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 41% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 81% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 25% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Feb 28 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
- Feb 15 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-1
- Feb 7 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-2
- Feb 1 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
TSG Hoffenheim
WinLossWinDrawLoss
- Feb 28 · v St. Pauli (H)0-1
- Feb 21 · at FC Köln (A)2-2
- Feb 14 · v SC Freiburg (H)3-0
- Feb 8 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-5
- Jan 31 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.