Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Feb 22 · 18:30 · Heidenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: VfB Stuttgart win · 55%
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Heidenheim25%22%+4
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart55%55%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 45% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 78% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 28% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Heidenheim
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Feb 15 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-1
- Feb 7 · v Hamburger SV (H)0-2
- Feb 1 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)2-3
- Jan 24 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-3
- Jan 17 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-1
VfB Stuttgart
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 19 · at Celtic (A)4-1
- Feb 14 · v FC Köln (H)3-1
- Feb 7 · at St. Pauli (A)1-2
- Feb 4 · at Holstein Kiel (A)3-0
- Feb 1 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Heidenheim | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.