Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Apr 19 · 13:00 · Hellas Verona vs AC Milan
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 45%
A 27% home win. The market says 14%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona27%14%+12
OursMarket
Draw28%23%+5
OursMarket
AC Milan45%62%−17
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 47% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 39% | 45% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 38% | +17 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 86% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 77% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 19% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 11 · at Torino (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · v Fiorentina (H)0-1
- Mar 22 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
- Mar 15 · v Genoa (H)0-2
- Mar 8 · at Bologna (A)2-1
AC Milan
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Apr 11 · v Udinese (H)0-3
- Apr 6 · at Napoli (A)0-1
- Mar 21 · v Torino (H)3-2
- Mar 15 · at Lazio (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Inter (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.