Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Dec 6 · 19:45 · Hellas Verona vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 51%
We make it 68% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona20%18%+1
OursMarket
Draw30%25%+5
OursMarket
Atalanta51%57%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 49% | −17 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 43% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 82% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 75% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 25% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Nov 29 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · v Parma (H)1-2
- Nov 8 · at Lecce (A)0-0
- Nov 2 · v Inter (H)1-2
- Oct 29 · at Como (A)1-3
Atalanta
LossLossWinWinWin
- Dec 3 · v Genoa (H)4-0
- Nov 30 · v Fiorentina (H)2-0
- Nov 26 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Napoli (A)1-3
- Nov 9 · v Sassuolo (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-6-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.