Serie A (Italy) · Thu, Jan 15 · 17:30 · Hellas Verona vs Bologna
Likeliest: Bologna win · 39%
A 35% home win. The market says 27%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona35%27%+8
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−4
OursMarket
Bologna39%43%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 41% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 57% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 73% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 38% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Jan 11 · v Lazio (H)0-1
- Jan 7 · at Napoli (A)2-2
- Jan 4 · v Torino (H)0-3
- Dec 28 · at Milan (A)0-3
- Dec 14 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
Bologna
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Jan 10 · at Como (A)1-1
- Jan 7 · v Atalanta (H)0-2
- Jan 4 · at Inter (A)1-3
- Dec 28 · v Sassuolo (H)1-1
- Dec 14 · v Juventus (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-5 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.