Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 10 · 10:30 · Hellas Verona vs Como
Likeliest: Como win · 55%
We make it 67% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona19%12%+6
OursMarket
Draw26%20%+6
OursMarket
Como55%68%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 50% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 32% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 82% | 88% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 80% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 15% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- May 3 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Lecce (H)0-0
- Apr 19 · v AC Milan (H)0-1
- Apr 11 · at Torino (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · v Fiorentina (H)0-1
Como
LossLossLossWinDraw
- May 2 · v Napoli (H)0-0
- Apr 26 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- Apr 21 · at Inter (A)2-3
- Apr 17 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v Inter (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-8 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.