Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 4 · 16:00 · Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Fiorentina win · 37%
A 36% home win. The market says 24%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona36%24%+12
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Fiorentina37%47%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 42% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 47% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 53% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 76% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 34% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Mar 22 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
- Mar 15 · v Genoa (H)0-2
- Mar 8 · at Bologna (A)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Napoli (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · at Sassuolo (A)0-3
Fiorentina
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Mar 22 · v Inter (H)1-1
- Mar 19 · at Raków Częstochowa (A)2-1
- Mar 16 · at Cremonese (A)4-1
- Mar 12 · v Raków Częstochowa (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · v Parma (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.