Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 15 · 11:30 · Hellas Verona vs Genoa
Likeliest: Hellas Verona win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 29%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona46%29%+17
OursMarket
Draw25%32%−7
OursMarket
Genoa29%39%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 38% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 46% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 61% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 71% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 68% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 43% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Mar 8 · at Bologna (A)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Napoli (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · at Sassuolo (A)0-3
- Feb 15 · at Parma (A)1-2
- Feb 6 · v Pisa (H)0-0
Genoa
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Mar 8 · v Roma (H)2-1
- Feb 28 · at Inter (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v Torino (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Cremonese (A)0-0
- Feb 7 · v Napoli (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.