Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Jan 11 · 17:00 · Hellas Verona vs Lazio
Likeliest: Lazio win · 42%
We make it 41% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona30%28%+2
OursMarket
Draw28%33%−5
OursMarket
Lazio42%39%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 34% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 47% | 43% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 67% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 42% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Jan 7 · at Napoli (A)2-2
- Jan 4 · v Torino (H)0-3
- Dec 28 · at Milan (A)0-3
- Dec 14 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Atalanta (H)3-1
Lazio
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Jan 7 · v Fiorentina (H)2-2
- Jan 4 · v Napoli (H)0-2
- Dec 27 · at Udinese (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Cremonese (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Parma (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.