Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 25 · 18:45 · Hellas Verona vs Lecce
Likeliest: Hellas Verona win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 36%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona40%36%+4
OursMarket
Draw30%32%−2
OursMarket
Lecce30%32%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 35% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 38% | 44% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 52% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Apr 19 · v AC Milan (H)0-1
- Apr 11 · at Torino (A)1-2
- Apr 4 · v Fiorentina (H)0-1
- Mar 22 · at Atalanta (A)0-1
- Mar 15 · v Genoa (H)0-2
Lecce
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Apr 20 · v Fiorentina (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Bologna (A)0-2
- Apr 6 · v Atalanta (H)0-3
- Mar 22 · at Roma (A)0-1
- Mar 14 · at Napoli (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-8 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.