Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 28 · 17:00 · Hellas Verona vs Napoli
Likeliest: Napoli win · 42%
A 31% home win. The market says 16%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona31%16%+15
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Napoli42%59%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 41% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 41% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 41% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 84% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 21% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Feb 20 · at Sassuolo (A)0-3
- Feb 15 · at Parma (A)1-2
- Feb 6 · v Pisa (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Cagliari (A)0-4
- Jan 26 · v Udinese (H)1-3
Napoli
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Feb 22 · at Atalanta (A)1-2
- Feb 15 · v Roma (H)2-2
- Feb 10 · v Como (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Genoa (A)3-2
- Jan 31 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-7 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.