Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Nov 23 · 11:30 · Hellas Verona vs Parma
Likeliest: Parma win · 36%
A 36% away win. The market says 27%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona32%41%−10
OursMarket
Draw32%32%0
OursMarket
Parma36%27%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 38% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 73% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 59% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 60% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Nov 8 · at Lecce (A)0-0
- Nov 2 · v Inter (H)1-2
- Oct 29 · at Como (A)1-3
- Oct 26 · v Cagliari (H)2-2
- Oct 18 · at Pisa (A)0-0
Parma
DrawDrawLossLossDraw
- Nov 8 · v Milan (H)2-2
- Nov 2 · v Bologna (H)1-3
- Oct 29 · at Roma (A)1-2
- Oct 25 · v Como (H)0-0
- Oct 19 · at Genoa (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-7-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.