Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 24 · 18:45 · Hellas Verona vs Roma
Likeliest: Roma win · 54%
A 19% home win. The market says 9%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona19%9%+10
OursMarket
Draw26%18%+8
OursMarket
Roma54%72%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 28% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 81% | 91% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 82% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 26% | 11% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- May 17 · at Inter (A)1-1
- May 10 · v Como (H)0-1
- May 3 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Lecce (H)0-0
- Apr 19 · v AC Milan (H)0-1
Roma
DrawWinWinWinWin
- May 17 · v Lazio (H)2-0
- May 10 · at Parma (A)3-2
- May 4 · v Fiorentina (H)4-0
- Apr 25 · at Bologna (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · v Atalanta (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-8 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.