Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Jan 4 · 17:00 · Hellas Verona vs Torino
Likeliest: Torino win · 42%
A 42% away win. The market says 32%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona29%35%−7
OursMarket
Draw30%32%−3
OursMarket
Torino42%32%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 37% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 68% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 65% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 68% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 52% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 28 · at Milan (A)0-3
- Dec 14 · at Fiorentina (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Atalanta (H)3-1
- Nov 29 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Nov 23 · v Parma (H)1-2
Torino
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Dec 27 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- Dec 21 · at Sassuolo (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
- Dec 8 · v Milan (H)2-3
- Nov 30 · at Lecce (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.