Coppa Italia (Italy) · Sun, Aug 16 · 18:45 · Hellas Verona vs Virtus Entella
Likeliest: Hellas Verona win · 43%
A 31% away win. The market says 17%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hellas Verona43%58%−15
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Virtus Entella31%17%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 47% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 83% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 42% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 77% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hellas Verona
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- May 24 · v Roma (H)0-2
- May 17 · at Inter (A)1-1
- May 10 · v Como (H)0-1
- May 3 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Lecce (H)0-0
Virtus Entella
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- May 8 · v Carrarese (H)2-1
- May 1 · at Bari 1908 (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Calcio Padova (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at Empoli (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Venezia (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Hellas Verona | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-8 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.