Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 2 · 19:00 · Helmond Sport vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: Heracles Almelo win · 69%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 69% for the away win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Helmond Sport11%15%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%20%0
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo69%65%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 31% | 35% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 89% | 85% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 14% | 19% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Helmond Sport
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 26 · at MVV Maastricht (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · v VVV-Venlo (H)4-2
- Aug 28 · at Jong Ajax (A)2-3
Heracles Almelo
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 26 · v Vitesse (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Almere City FC (A)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)3-2
- Sep 4 · v De Graafschap (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Eindhoven (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Helmond Sport | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.