Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:00 · Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 69%
Likely score: 1–2
A 69% away win. The market says 64%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Helmond Sport13%17%−4
OursMarket
Draw19%19%0
OursMarket
NAC Breda69%64%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 63% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 31% | 36% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 83% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 16% | 21% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Helmond Sport
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · at TOP Oss (A)1-3
- Oct 2 · v Heracles Almelo (H)2-2
- Sep 26 · at MVV Maastricht (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
NAC Breda
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 9 · v MVV Maastricht (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Vitesse (A)2-2
- Sep 26 · v FC Eindhoven (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at De Graafschap (A)2-1
- Sep 11 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Helmond Sport | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.